According to the sales and demand situation, volca

2022-09-19
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Shanying paper: some downtime may be considered according to sales and demand in may

release date: Source: China good packaging browse times: 1638 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: on April 30, Shanying paper published its 2019 annual report and 2020 quarterly report. In the afternoon of the same day, Shanying paper welcomed the

of more than 30 institutions such as Changjiang Securities, Soochow securities, Shenwan securities, etc. on April 30, Shanying paper released its 2019 annual report and 2020 first quarter report. In the afternoon of the same day, Shanying paper welcomed the research of more than 30 institutions such as Changjiang Securities, Soochow securities and Shenwan securities. In the research, through the answers of Shanying paper executives, we can see the development trend and current market situation of Shanying paper

it is revealed that due to the epidemic, the overall production pace of the three lines of Shanying paper's Hubei Jingzhou base will be delayed by about three months; At present, there is no obvious rebound in market demand, and some downtime may be considered in May according to sales and demand. As there are many questions raised by major funds and securities institutions, the author only excerpts some topics of interest to insiders as follows for reference

some downtime may be considered in May

Q: what is the current stock level of base paper and waste paper of the company? How about capacity utilization

answer: at present, the finished paper warehouse of domestic paper mills exists for about 20 days, and the waste paper inventory is days; The stock of base paper in the packaging factory is about 18 days, which will cause wear and scratches on the appearance of some parts, which is lower than the average level. According to the sales of base paper in April, the current market demand has not rebounded significantly. In May, according to the sales and demand, the company may consider some downtime

the production and sales volume of the packaging sector reached 90% of the target. At present, the price and cost of corrugated box board in China have changed greatly, making it difficult for paper mills with backward production capacity to continue production

The price level of waste paper and base paper is lower than that of last year. Q: the overall industry environment, domestic and global epidemic in 2019 have led to fluctuations in paper prices. What is the company's outlook for the future market of paper prices in 2020

answer: under normal circumstances, the paper machine does not stop. Affected by the epidemic, the logistics and waste paper supply were affected in February, the paper mills were shut down, and the packaging enterprises did not start production until early March. At the beginning of March, the industry replenished inventory, resulting in the rise of waste paper and paper prices. With the spread of the overseas epidemic, the overall market demand has shrunk. Since late March, the prices of finished paper and waste paper have declined. At present, the prices are below the average level of last year, and the demand is still relatively low for the time being

the overseas epidemic has affected overseas logistics, and the recycling volume of waste paper has also decreased, resulting in a higher price of waste paper in Europe and the United States, while the overseas local demand for paper is still strong, resulting in a reduction in the volume of waste paper exported to China. At the same time, the overseas demand for China's industrial products has declined, leading to the weakening of China's industrial products production. It is preliminarily judged that the epidemic has a great impact on the global economy and the paper industry, and the market trend in the later stage depends on the development of the epidemic

paper mills with backward production capacity are in a state of loss

Q: at present, the overall situation of the industry and the net profit per ton have returned to the low level in the third quarter of last year. Is there a clear optimization of the industry pattern of box corrugated paper? For example, the market share of leading enterprises. What is the company's outlook for the industry pattern in the coming years

answer: the gross profit in the first quarter increased compared with the average gross profit last year, but the sales volume decreased, and the overall performance of the company decreased compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of the industry, the current paper price is an accelerator for the clearance of backward production capacity in the industry

the current price of medium tile paper is about 2600 yuan per ton, and the price difference between waste paper and finished paper is only about 900 yuan at present. Paper mills with backward production capacity are in a state of loss. The current market is conducive to clearing the backward production capacity of the industry and accelerating the healthy development of the industry

it is expected that the second quarter will be better than the first quarter.

Q: how about the company's monthly profit in March? How to expect the production and sales of domestic paper industry this year

answer: in March, the price market was high before and low after. Compared with the overall level of the first quarter, the profit level of a single month was OK. The gross profit in the first quarter increased by more than 2 points year-on-year compared with last year. In the second quarter, considering that the demand has not yet fully recovered, the sales volume is expected to be about 1.1 million tons, an increase of% over the sales volume in the first quarter, and the gross profit may be slightly lower than that in the first quarter

on the whole, the second quarter is expected to be better than the first quarter, and the market in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half. Of course, this mainly depends on whether overseas enterprises and overseas logistics can resume work normally. If the overseas epidemic continues to deteriorate, it may even affect the third quarter

the startup rate of the packaging sector is close to the target level

Q: how does the overseas epidemic affect the company's overseas industry? Please introduce the performance outlook of the company's packaging industry in the second quarter

A: at present, the operation of Nordic paper is relatively stable. Because the production base is close to the forest, the main raw materials are wood chips, and the sales orders are basically long-term customers, so the production and sales are not affected by the epidemic

at present, the company's packaging sector has a high startup rate, close to the target level, and its customers are mainly food and beverage, electronic appliances and express e-commerce. Among them, the demand for white goods is relatively weak. With the gradual stabilization of the overseas epidemic, the demand may rebound at the end of the second quarter; Since May, the demand for beer and beverages is expected to rise as to how the concrete pressure testing machine operates. In general, the performance of the company's packaging sector in the second quarter will be higher than that in the first quarter and return to normal profitability

tile paper less than 3000 yuan/ton can prevent the import of paper

Q: how about the import of overseas finished paper this year? What is the price ceiling of domestic finished paper? Will the company consider building finished paper bases overseas? Will it have an impact on the domestic market

answer: the competition of paper enterprises is not only domestic competition, but also global competition. If the price of finished packaging paper in China is high, the volume of imported paper will increase. Due to the balance of production and sales of overseas paper enterprises for many years, although the price of domestic finished paper was high in 2018, no overseas paper came in. With the development, the amount of overseas paper imports began to increase in 2019

if there is a price ceiling, the domestic leading enterprises will consider how to reduce the cost of waste paper and ensure the stable profits of the industry, which depends on the control of the leading enterprises over the industry. As the market share of leading enterprises gradually increases, the cyclical impact of the industry will become weaker and weaker. It is estimated that if the price of tile paper is below 3000 yuan per ton, overseas paper will not come in

even if the company invests in the construction of overseas finished paper bases, it will only be digested overseas and locally, and will not be transported to China

the production of the three production lines in Jingzhou base will be postponed for three months

Q: what is the production rhythm of the three production lines in Hubei Jingzhou base of the company? What is the estimated annual paper production level of the company

answer: affected by the epidemic, the overall production pace of the three lines of Hubei Jingzhou base will be delayed by about three months. At present, the first line has been put into operation, the second line is expected to be put into operation in June, and the third line is expected to be put into operation in November or December

the company's paper making this year is always metal materials. The ideal sample cooling and thermal insulation equipment capacity in the low-temperature impact test is 6million tons. The output of Dongjiakou Economic Zone in the first quarter is 1.65 million tons of the top 10 functional areas in the West Coast new area of Qingdao, and it is expected to be 1.1 million tons in the second quarter. Affected by the epidemic and market demand factors, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will not reach 100% in the first half of the year. If the epidemic is controlled, the capacity utilization rate of the paper machine may reach 100% in the second half of the year

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